30 Tigers in 30 Days – #27: Alex Avila

2011: .295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 82 RBI
Career: .270/.362/.453, 31 HR, 127 RBI

2012 Projections

Bill James: .277/.376/.477, 19 HR, 76 RBI
ZiPS: .254/.348/.420, 14 HR, 66 RBI
RotoChamp: .265/.368/.458, 17 HR, 66 RBI

Expected Role: Starting catcher

The only question about Alex Avila’s incoming regression is how bad it will be. A .366 BABIP is not going to sustain itself, and I’d be very happy if the Bill James projection materializes. Avila has a nice swing, but he still strikes out a ton (among semi regulars and regulars, only Raburn, Inge, and Jackson had higher K% last year). Avila can still hit, but considering catcher isn’t supposed to be a majorly productive offensive position, .275 with 15-20 homers is still very good for the position – plus, Avila walks a lot as well.

Avila’s still a capable defender, of course, and now that he has a regular backup, they won’t have to run him into the ground like they did last season. I don’t think Avila will have another All-Star season, but he’s certainly capable of another decent offensive season and will remain steady at catcher.

Next: Brennan Boesch

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