2012 Projections - N/A

Expected Role: Backup catcher

Gerald Laird’s value goes beyond numbers. There aren’t really any projections for him, because you can’t project Gerald Laird. Throw the career stats out the window. You can harp on the .232 average last year all you want, but that’s the best .232 average in baseball history. When Gerald Laird is on the field, he changes the complexion of the game – no ifs, ands, or buts.

And don’t forget his defensive ability. The man is a legend. Who needs Pudge Rodriguez when you have Gerald Laird? Remember every day when Rod Allen would point out how he grips the baseball when he throws people out at second like laserbeams and stuff? Yeah, get used to seeing that again. We’re bringing it back.

Gerald Laird brings a presence. Why do you think the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series last year? It’s not because of Albert Pujols, or Lance Berkman, or their pitching, or their defense. It’s because Gerald Laird was the heart and soul of that baseball team. When they were out of it in September, Gerald Laird never gave up. He carried them back. He sat there on the bench cheering with gusto, and not many players can cheer with that much gusto, I don’t mind saying. They weren’t even supposed to win the wildcard, and Gerald Laird was the backbone of their World Series run. And he’s gonna do the same here.

Gerald Laird is back, everybody. Kick back, relax, and watch as he leads the Detroit Tigers to the promised land – and then leads the entire City of Detroit in a massive singalong of “Hey, Soul Sister” at the victory parade in Hart Plaza.

Next: Luis Marte

2011: .344/.448/.586, 30 HR, 105 RBI
Career: .317/.395/.555, 277 HR, 984 RBI

2012 Projections

Bill James: .329/.422/.582, 35 HR, 120 RBI
ZiPS: .310/.406/.548, 31 HR, 99 RBI
RotoChamp: .323/426/.573, 32 HR, 118 RBI

Expected Role: Third base(!!!!)

Can we just take a moment to consider how awesome it is that the Tigers got this guy for what essentially boils down to Cameron Maybin? We should never, ever take this for granted.

Anyway, Miguel Cabrera is batting third this year, and he’s skinny – at least by Miguel Cabrera standards, anyway. Don’t think his offensive production will drop much. He might hit the gaps a bit more than he homers, but it’s hard to go wrong. The big question comes defensively with Cabrera’s move to third. I, for one, don’t think he’ll be as cover-your-eyes bad as some people think he will be. Walkoff Woodward pretty well covered the defensive angle with a conclusive and honest “we really don’t know, but based on the raw numbers, he’s really not going to be staggeringly worse than what the Tigers had there before.” Now, that’s not to say he’ll win a Gold Glove or anything, and we’ll have to see how he responds to bunts and weak ground balls and the like, but frankly, I think Cabrera’s offensive prowess combined with Prince Fielder’s will be worth the defensive downgrade.

And don’t forget, Cabrera has a lot of pride and an excellent work ethic. I think he wants this, and I have no reason to believe that he won’t work his rear end off to make sure he’s at least competent at it. He did the same at first base, after all. Cabrera has a legitimate chance of winning the MVP Award next year. Hey, I have to say something bold in these posts, don’t I?

Next: Our Namesake, G-Money

2012 Projections
Bill James: 4-3, 0 saves, 3.30 ERA, 24 BB, 73 K in 60 IP
RotoChamp: 2-2, 0 saves, 3.44 ERA, 22 BB, 65 K in 55 IP 

Expected Role: 7th inning setup

The Octavio Dotel move is going to fly under the radar, but he could be an extremely valuable bullpen piece this year, especially with Al Alburquerque out until God knows when. He posts healthy strikeout totals, has AL Central experience…really the only thing is he should never ever be allowed to face lefties, because he’s terrible against them. Dominates right handers, though, and will provide a valuable bridge to the Benoit/Valverde combo. His walk rate was way down last year for some reason – wouldn’t expect it to continue, but Dotel will probably do exactly what the Tigers are hoping he’ll do – get them through the 7th more often than not. And that’s going to be a pretty big help.

Next: Miguel Cabrera

Anyway, I have been asked to join the Detroit Tigers Scorecard blog as a contributor, and I have accepted. I’m quite excited, and if you read me regularly on here, be sure to keep tabs on there for more from me, because it will be coming very soon.

As for Fire Gerald Laird, it will continue to exist in some form, I’m just not totally sure what. Most if not all of my Tigers writing will be done over at DTS, so I might broaden this out and focus more on Major League Baseball as a whole, because heaven knows I have plenty of snarky opinions on the other 29 teams as well. I will, however, finish 30 Tigers in 30 Days here, hopefully sometime by November 2014. (That’s a joke. You know. Ha ha.)

Anyway, a heartfelt thanks to all those who have read this blog over the past year or so, and I hope you’ll keep reading my Tigers stuff at its new home.

If you don’t already, you can follow DTS on Twitter @TigersScorecard and like them on Facebook.

2011: .299/.345/.478, 21 HR, 86 RBI
Career: .268/.330/.427, 132 HR, 580 RBI

2012 Projections

Bill James: .274/.336/.438, 19 HR, 86 RBI
ZiPS: .268/.320/.423, 17 HR, 80 RBI
RotoChamp: .270/.330/.433, 18 HR, 75 RBI

Expected Role: Starting shortstop

Jhonny Peralta’s career year concerns me, and the projections take him back down close to his career averages. To be clear, a .270/25/80 offensive player at shortstop is still very useful and a very capable starter, but I wouldn’t count on Peralta replicating his 2011 again.

Much has been made about Peralta defensively, and even more will be made of it now that Miguel Cabrera will be playing to his right at third base. Worth noting that Fangraphs actually rated him quite well defensively last year – although one year sample sizes for defense are a slippery slope, it’s worth mentioning, and some people (we won’t name names) were actually throwing his name out for Gold Glove consideration. I wouldn’t go that far, but Peralta is a steady defender and almost always makes the plays he should make. You can wish for a better defensive shortstop, but there’s something to be said for having a guy who very rarely makes bonehead errors that can open the door for big innings.

Peralta is a steady shortstop, and is proving to be one of Dave Dombrowski’s better recent moves. I just don’t like his odds of hitting nearly .300 again.

2012 Projections

Bill James: 2-3, 4.30 ERA, 16 BB, 31 K in 44 IP
ZiPS: 5-8, 5.56 ERA, 44 BB, 57 K in 102 IP
RotoChamp: 1-1, 4.66 ERA, 11 BB, 14 K in 29 IP

Expected Role: Long relief/fifth starter/somewhere in between

Duane Below did some decent work for the Tigers last year despite an extremely uninspiring K/BB ratio. He had a bizarre reverse split that can probably be chalked up to some BABIP luck. Not a lot to say about him aside from he could be a decent lefty long relief option if Jim Leyland decides to take him north with the ballclub. I’m not sure I’d be willing to count on him in the fifth starter role as anything more than a short-term stopgap, though, much like he proved to be last year until the Tigers nabbed Doug Fister on the trade market.

Tomorrow: Jhonny Peralta

2011: 3-9, 4.47 ERA, 40 BB, 69 K in 108.2 IP
Career: 15-17, 4.06 ERA, 88 BB, 185 K in 248 IP

2012 Projections
Bill James: 5-4, 3.75 ERA, 31 BB, 67 K in 84 IP
ZiPS: 6-5, 4.10 ERA, 32 BB, 60 K in 83.3 IP
RotoChamp: 5-5, 4.42 ERA, 41 BB, 76 K in 110 IP

Expected Role: Bullpen lefty

The Phil Coke Starter Experiment was actually working for a while last year until he fell off the cliff because he simply couldn’t get right handers out consistently enough. He was much better in relief once the Tigers moved him back there (3.71 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and his K/9 jumped while is BB/9 actually dropped), and the role of number one lefty out of the bullpen is ideal for him. Left handers hit just .212 against him, while righties came in at .308. That usually won’t get it done as a starter, but if used properly, it makes you a valuable relief asset.

The projections are a little wonky because some still account for the idea that Coke might get spot starts. I don’t see that happening. Instead, Coke will play a valuable role as the lefty specialist as a counter to Octavio Dotel’s (hopeful) mastery of right handers in the 6th or 7th innings.

Next: Duane Below

2012 Projections
Bill James: 18-8, 3.08 ERA, 61 BB, 226 K in 240 IP
ZiPS: 19-8, 2.96 ERA, 59 BB, 231 K in 225.3 IP
RotoChamp: 18-8, 2.93, 56 BB, 214 K in 215 IP

Expected Role: A ninja riding on a cheetah

I start by saying Justin Verlander probably won’t repeat his 2011 season. I mean, it’s not that he’s bad or anything, but it’s going to be next to impossible to pull that off again. It’s one of those once-in-a-lifetime seasons you just fondly remember and look at the stat lines while slackjawed. Although if he wants to repeat it, he’s more than welcome to.

That said, even the fickle projections still love him, and there’s plenty of reason to believe his ERA will be below 3 again, and he may well win 20 games again, and I wouldn’t rule out him winning the Cy Young again. There really isn’t a lot to write here, and there really isn’t a lot to worry about regarding Verlander. By now, you know exactly what you’re getting with him.

Tomorrow: Phil Coke and his brain

I admit that there’s absolutely nothing original about soliciting questions on Twitter for this sort of purpose, but hey, why not? Without further ado…

“why is your twitter handle @spacemnkymafia ?” – @philcokesbrain

Excellent question, that. Truth is, it has nothing to do with baseball, but rather the Billy Joel song “We Didn’t Start the Fire,” which contains the like “space monkey, mafia.” They’re not supposed to be related, but they’re sung on the same line, and the notion of a mafia of space monkeys is just kinda awesome. I’ve always thought it would make for a good band name, anyway.

“o/u on Twins wins = 62.5?” – @mr_senay

Over, begrudgingly. Unless everyone on their team catches typhoid again or whatever that was, in which case I’ll just laugh.

“What will you do if the DET acquires Brandon Laird, the younger Laird? he’s an infielder, but just as ugly.” – @firstheart42

Laugh? Cry? Combination of both? The good news for Brandon Laird is that he doesn’t look as perpetually confused as his older brother does. And he can hit better.

“Am I the only person that really wants a Willie Blair jersey?” – @nikschulz

If I were you, I’d spring for a Dave Borkowski.

“Given he plays in 80 games, over or under: 47 errors for Elmon in Left Field?” – @docworn

Over? Well, I’ll still render the season a defensive success as long as he doesn’t allow any home run balls to bounce off his glove and over the fence. Ahem. Looking at you, RyRy.

“The tigers should cut Gerald Laird and re re re sign Brad Ausmus. Agree?” – @dxnick

Randy Smith, is that you?

Brad Ausmus could probably still play, too.

“If you were stranded on a desert island and could take only 3 memorable Tigers games with you, what would you take? Why?” – @littlestclouds

This is a really good question. I could go any number of ways on this, but…game three of the 2006 ALDS because it was the first home playoff game in my lifetime and was awesome, game three of the 2011 ALDS because it was the first playoff game I ever attended and was also awesome, and game four of the 2006 ALCS for obvious reasons. Could go a lot of different ways with this, though.

“Who do you think will finish the season with the crazies facial hair, @ballystar40 or @PhilCokesBrain?” – @littlestclouds

I’ve learned to never pick against Phil Coke.

“do you think Ninja Verlander will have a problem when he discovers that Mad Max has a blue eye and a brown eye?” – @docworn

I don’t think so. I think it would be more expedient for them to team up to defeat evil. Imagine Ninja Verlander and Mad Max riding in on their cheetah together. We’re talking instant surrender here, guys. World peace and all that.

“Alex Avila – werewolf or some sort of man/bear hybrid?” – @tigercub33

I’m gonna say man/bear hybrid, largely because I have attended games under a full moon and, to my knowledge, Alex Avila has never tried to eat anyone’s flesh or anything like that. Man/bear hybrid is a plausible explanation, though.

“Do you think Miguel Cabrera could bench press Prince Fielder?” – @littlestclouds

I think this would end in a hilarious stalemate. And someone would probably pull a muscle, so if anyone close to the Tigers is reading this, much as I’d like to see this, tell these two to never try it.

“do you think Brandon Inge could bench press Prince Field….wait…” – @docworn

About as well as he bench pressed his daughter’s pillow way back when, right?

(I’m joking, of course. Brandon Inge could totally bench press Prince Fielder and probably hurl him a considerable distance because he’s Brandon flippin’ Inge.)

2012 Projections
Bill James: 3-4, 4.91 ERA, 21 BB, 42 K in 66 IP
ZiPS: 4-4, 4.58 ERA, 25 BB, 40 K, 72.7 IP
RotoChamp: 3-3, 4.02 ERA, 20 BB, 38 K in 65 IP

Expected Role: Middle relief

I’ve turned into something of a David Pauley apologist and I don’t know why. His projections aren’t particularly good, his career numbers aren’t particularly good, but here we are. Last year was Pauley’s first in a relief role full time, and while his ERA definitely outperformed his FIP, the latter was still under 4. His ground ball rate is nearly 50%. He had a pretty ridiculous reverse split, holding lefties to a .194 average last year – not that I expect that to last, but hey, it’s there, and in a bullpen where your other lefties are Phil Coke (fine) and Daniel Schlereth (gulp) that could come in handy.

All I’m saying is give David Pauley a chance. He might fail, but hey, we gave Zach Miner a million and a half chances and the two seem like fairly similar pitchers (although Pauley’s ground ball rate the last two years was higher than Miner’s ever was – but Jim Leyland liked Miner because he could get ground ball outs….?). We’ll see how spring goes, anyway.

Tomorrow: Justin Verlander